Maybe the housing bubble won't "burst" after all.

This after more news from the real estate sector, where the U.S. Commerce Department reports that  Sales of new U.S. homes rose 16.2 percent in April, the sharpest climb in 15 years, while prices fell a record 11 percent. 

Are we seeing a 'rebound" effect, where lower home prices are luring buyers back into the market in droves -- a trend that seems to be backed by the Commerce Dept. report?

It sure looks that way. 

According to Commerce, new single-family home sales rose to an annual rate of 981,000 units from a revised rate of 844,000 in March. Wall Street analysts were expecting April sales to rise to an 860,000 unit pace from a previously reported rate of 858,000 units in March. In April, the median sales price of a new home fell $28,500 to $229,100 from $257,600 in March. There were 538,000 new homes for sale in April, a fall from the 546,000 reported in March. It would take 6.5 months to clear that inventory at the current sales pace, less than the 8.1 months recorded in March.

Later today we should get another bellwether indicator on the future of the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales, which represent 85 percent of the housing market, should rise as well.  According to a report this morning from Reuters, analysts are expecting April existing home sales to rise to 6.14 million unit pace from the 6.12 million in March.

If that comes to pass, then we should expect to see a reduction in the "doom and gloom" bubble-burst stories coming from the U.S. media. It's about time.

I still can't figure out how severe our housing "bubble" is. If you can, please let me know.

I was visiting a client in Portland, Oregon this week who helped me shed some new light on the housing picture. This guy builds beach front properties near Newport, on Oregon's gorgeous coastline, about two hours west of Portland (if you ever get the chance to visit, I recommend it).

We visited his new development of 61 homes that aren't even built yet, but are already sold out. There were plenty of "Sold" signs in and around Portland, too. Bubble? Not in Oregon there isn't.

So naturally, when I get back, one of the first bits of economic news I get, this from Reuters this morning, is that U.S. foreclosure rates hit new heights in the first quarter of 2007. The good news is that late payments fell during the same period, (Reuters reports this news using data from the National Mortgage Association).

According to the NMA, the rate of loans entering the foreclosure process was 0.58 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, or more than one out of 200 loans and 4 basis points higher than the previous quarter. The rate rose 17 basis points from a year ago. In addition, the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to four-unit residential properties stood at 4.84 percent of all loans outstanding in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down 11 basis points from the fourth quarter and up 43 basis points from a year ago.

"The rate of delinquencies is being driven by what is taking place in seven states," Douglas Duncan, the MBA's chief economist, said in a statement. "The percentage of loans in foreclosure would be well below the average of the last 10 years were it not for Ohio, Michigan and Indiana, and the rate of foreclosures started nationwide would have fallen were it not for the big jumps in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Those states have special circumstances that do not reflect what is happening in the rest of the country," he adds.

But I did find an interesting wrinkle at the bottom of the story. Foreclosures, it seems, are like my golf game -- hot in some spots and cold in others. Reuters reports that foreclosures are down in 24 states. And, relating to my Oregon visit, west coast states like Oregon, California, and Arizona are some of the coldest real estate markets in the country.

But that's not I'm seeing with my own eyes.

So maybe the Reuter's business writers need to get on a flight to Oregon.

On Wall Street, you often hear the big money guys talking about "bullet-proofing" their portfolios.

In other words, designing your investment portfolio in such a way that even if your portfolio takes a body blow, it's easily absorbed with minimal damage to your investment assets. No investment plan is immune to losses – the idea is to limit those losses so they don't destroy your financial future.

Make no mistake, protecting your portfolio should be job one for investors, if only for good peace of mind. Research indicates that a loss causes about twice as much pain as a gain causes pleasure. During periods of market volatility, investors experience the sense of loss more acutely. For anyone with short memories, the bear market of 2000-2002 is a vivid example of that.

One example of bulletproofing your portfolio comes in the form of "Hurricane-Resistant" investment portfolios.

Remember Katrina? We all do. It wreaked billions of dollars of damage along the U.S. Gulf Coast in August, 2005. But some saw opportunity in tragedy. Writes Adam Shell, in a USA Today piece shortly after
hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit, "ever since Hurricane Katrina crashed into the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, nimble traders and money managers have been reshaping their portfolios in an attempt to sidestep — and profit from — the potentially devastating one-two punch packed by Katrina and Rita."

In this case it's the notion that some industries and companies will profit handsomely from the damage inflicted by Mother Nature. Andrew Corn, CEO of Clear Asset Management told USA Today in the same story: "Like most tragedies, there is a silver, or in this case, a golden
lining."

This year the U.S. Weather Service is forecasting a big uptick in hurricane activity in the Western Atlantic, with the possibility of a whopping five "major" hurricanes reaching U.S. shores. Of course, I hope that doesn't happen. Lives will be lost, as will homes and livelihoods. But if it does, and you care to profit from it, there is a plan.

The key in building hurricane-proof portfolios is to pick the sectors - and the companies within those sectors – that are poised to profit from natural disasters. Obviously, construction and home repair providers - -think Lowes or Home Depot - -might be a natural for a disaster-proof stock portfolio. Energy and utility companies can fill a niche, too.

Even clothing retailers tend to do well in natural disasters. Companies like Abercrombie & Fitch and The Gap are often the first places shoppers go to replace - -what else? - - their clothing lost to a hurricane or other natural disaster.

While no actual hurricane mutual fund exists today, it's highly possible to cherry pick the companies you think will grow and prosper even as most others wither on the vine after a natural disaster like Katrina or Rita.

Remember, there's really no avoiding the ebbs and flows of stock market performance. Hits are inevitable and typically occur because of a bear market, a recession, inflation fears, or a currency problem. That's why the goal is to build-in protection for your capital, maybe even make a profit even when traditional portfolios are spiraling downward and still be able to beat or keep up with the markets when they are rallying.

That's why bulletproofing your portfolio is so critical – it protects you and your money and creates more opportunities to grow your investment portfolio.

Even after a hurricane.

Good businesses are always measuring progress - - sometimes in the unlikeliest instances.

Years ago, retail magnate Marshall Field was walking through the original store that bears his name in Chicago. In doing so, he overheard a clerk arguing with a customer.

He stopped and asked: "What are you doing?"

The clerk answered: "I'm settling a complaint."

Field shot back: "No, you're not. Give the lady what she wants."

Marshall Field, a notorious "floorwalker" at his landmark store, was way ahead of his time. He knew that giving customers "what they want" is the heart and soul of any commercial enterprise.

He also knew that the key to boosting both his company brand and his bottom line was by constantly measuring progress, not just as a customer service barometer, although that's obviously critical to any company's success. Like most successful business owners, he also measured the overall quality and effectiveness of the entire shopping experience.

That's what separates the contenders from the pretenders in business today – the ability to know exactly what makes customers enter your doors and come back again and again – knowing they can rely on receiving the same quality, service and product each time they do.

Fast forward to the first decade of the 21st century, where companies like Starbucks are taking a similar page out of the Marshall Field playbook.

No matter which store or city a Starbucks customer is in, each one knows exactly what to expect – not just in terms of service, but in terms of overall experience. Each store's product, design, atmosphere, décor and service is so predictable that it becomes intuitive; as a result, consumer behavior and response becomes accurately predictable – making it even easier to design promotions, incentives and products that will immediately boost sales.

Small businesses can learn a lot from such customer-centric themes. It's also profitable. For example, what's the difference between a store that offers customers an in-store charge card at  checkout every time and one that makes the same offer just 20% of the time? An annual
sales spike of $90,000 per store, according to one retailing industry study.

So clarifying employee expectations and creating reward and incentive schemes go hand in hand with increased sales. That's what measuring company progress can do for you. But it's "how" companies are deploying performance measurement programs that is changing the business landscape today.

Historically, gauging consumer "experiences" has been the primary responsibility of the customer service department.

But in reality, customer service departments have become little more complaint departments. Or even worse, a place to go for customers to go and replace unwanted merchandise. Let's face it, you can't use the current customer service department model as a way to gauge the health and vibrancy of your company's customer relationships – it's an outmoded model that is spread too thin in terms of responsibilities and is not advanced enough to handle all the measurements that need addressing across the company.

Enter the mystery shopper.

Sometimes stereotyped as a subjective and slightly campy approach to evaluating customer service (think trench coats, wigs and dark sunglasses) mystery shoppers actually embody the complete customer satisfaction program.

How so? By measuring both the tangibles and intangibles of a company's customer experience program. Mystery shopping is a the answer to the question "How can managers seek to understand their company – and its product, service, or idea – from the customer's perspective?"

Let's face it, the level and quality of service you deliver to your customers is critical to your company's success. In fact, it may just be the ultimate barometer of your success. Many company's don't realize it, but their customers' total experience with the business and its employees dictate whether the company will succeed or fail...whether you will be profitable or not. Simply having expectations about what sort of experience your customers will have is not enough...you have to measure, you have to inspect. In the form of good, solid, effective mystery shopping programs, objective, anonymous, third-party assessments of the customer experience will provide the information you need to ensure that your expectations for customer experience are carried out in reality.

I'll have a lot more to say about mystery shopping programs in the next few blogs. In the mean time, I'll leave you with the following keys to mystery shopping -- and whether it might help your business.

• Most customers who have unsatisfactory experiences will not complain...they will just never come back.
• Shopping programs can identify areas of training that need improvement and can identify areas of training that are working particularly well
• If 20 customers are dissatisfied with your service, 19 won't tell you. Fourteen of the 20 will take their business elsewhere.