October 9, 2007
@ 12:18 PM
I spent last week in Key West at a friend's house and had a great time.

Okay, outside of the fishing, snorkeling, and the plaque I should get from all the bar stool time I spent at the Green Parrot, I won't rub it in.

But on the flight back I read in the Miami Herald how consumer confidence in the Sunshine State was off three points this month. That seemed strange -- Florida is job-heavy and leads the country in new construction and new residents. That's not to mention the absence of a state tax.

So I read where nationally, consumer confidence was way up in May, fueled by optimism about the job market and the seeming ease in housing woes across the country.

So is Florida an aberration? I think so. Economic numbers spike up and down all the time, especially at the state and regional levels. Not so much with the national figures, where today the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 108.0 in May, up from a revised 106.3 in April. Wall Street numbers-crunchers had forecast the Index to fall to 104.5. The May reading was the highest since March when the index was at 108.2.

Most analysts are, as usual, hedging their bets. But I do note a sense of encouragement on consumer sentiment. "The short-term outlook remains cautious and rising gasoline prices are having a negative impact on consumers' inflation expectations," says Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, in a statement. "(But) All in all, confidence levels continue to suggest growth, albeit at a slow pace."

Growth at a small pace after five years of high growth? I'll take that any day of the week. The economy can't be running on all cylinders all of the time -- there has to be periods of readjustment along the way. As long as such periods stay in positive territory, as we're seeing now, then we're in good shape.